Prevalence and persistence of smoking-related optimistic bias in youth

Audience: Scholars and practitioners of youth-focused anti-smoking interventions.

Key Points:

Optimistic bias (OB) is a perception that one’s own risk is lower than the risk of comparable others; OB has been used to explain why adolescents smoke despite known risks. Past research found OB to be pervasive, but many gaps remain in our understanding of OB.

Our study is the first to: examine OB: (a) over the first 3 years of high school; (b) in relation to adolescents’ perceived risks, benefits, and addiction of smoking; (c) assess OB using indirect measures; and (c) analyze OB at the group and individual level.

Overall, on the group level, OB was less pervasive than in past studies, and the number of items displaying OB decreased with time. At the individual level, there was wide variation in OB based on the type of smoking outcome; however, the participants displayed consistent OB on their perceptions of the risk of becoming addicted to smoking. 

Recommendations: Youth anti-smoking interventions should emphasize the risks of becoming addicted in order to combat the extensive OB.

Educational Experience: Presentation of results from the longitudinal survey with opportunities to reflect and ask questions. Recommendations on how to assess optimistic bias in youth and what to target when trying to change smoking risk perceptions. 

Benefits:  Optimistic bias is particularly important to examine in the area of smoking because it can help explain why the threat from the most preventable cause of serious illness and mortality is not more effective in stopping smoking.