The Value of Tobacco Control

The Value of Tobacco Control Frank J, Chaloupka* Richard M. Peck* Audience: Tobacco Control policy makers and advocates Key Points: This paper provides estimates of the impact of tobacco control policies on a statewide basis for all 50 U.S. states. For the U.S., we estimate that the increase in life expectancy over the period 1966 to 2004 would be lower by 17.4 percent had prevalence rates in the U.S. remained at 1966 levels. The value of the decline in prevalence, expressed as an annual willingness to accept payment, lies in the range of 400 to 600 billion dollars. For each additional percentage point decline in prevalence, average life expectancy rises by 2.64 weeks and has a monetary value of between $2.47 and $4.95 billion annually. For each state, we calculate the changes in smoking prevalence that arise from tobacco control policies (tax increases, clean air laws, and program expenditures). Using these prevalence changes, projections on the long run changes in life expectancy are derived. Adapting the Murphy-Topel framework we estimate the monetary value of these changes in life expectancy. This monetary benefit of tobacco control is compared to the out of pocket cost of tobacco control. Our results have important policy implications for the efficacy of tobacco control and increases in the stringency of tobacco control. Educational Experience: New estimates of the value of tobacco control will allow for more effective advocacy. Benefits: The relative effectiveness of various tobacco control interventions will assist in strategizing tobacco control efforts